股债天平震荡：债市情绪快速修复 基金开启接券模式

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a temporary stabilization after a period of volatility, influenced by the strong performance of the equity market and the central bank's liquidity support [1][4][8]. Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on the 10-year government bond rose from 1.72% on August 15 to 1.7875% on August 18, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards equities [1]. - On August 20, the bond market showed signs of recovery, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 2 basis points in the morning session [1]. - However, by the afternoon of August 20, the yield on the 10-year government bond increased by 2.15% compared to the morning, reflecting ongoing volatility [2]. Central Bank Actions - The central bank has been actively providing liquidity support, conducting a 616 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on August 20, maintaining a stable operation rate of 1.40% [4]. - This liquidity provision is seen as a protective measure for the bond market amid concerns of a "negative feedback" loop from potential large-scale redemptions [5][7]. Investor Behavior - Institutional investors have shown a shift in behavior, with funds moving from selling to buying bonds, particularly the 10-year government bonds, indicating a potential change in market sentiment [5]. - Despite recent volatility, bond funds have remained relatively stable, with net subscription indices staying within a manageable range, suggesting resilience in the face of market fluctuations [6]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current sentiment in the bond market remains fragile, heavily influenced by the performance of the equity market, which is experiencing a strong rally [8]. - Analysts suggest that while the bond market is under pressure from equity market dynamics, it is not expected to enter a bear market due to the overall supportive monetary policy environment [7].