上海华通铂银：黄金白银依然盘整，等待下一个催化剂

Core Viewpoint - Silver is supported by industrial demand and deficit outlook, while both gold and silver are experiencing narrow fluctuations with low volatility due to varying macroeconomic backgrounds and summer liquidity [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold has increased by 26% and silver by 30% year-to-date, but both lack clear catalysts for breaking higher price levels [1] - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's stance, especially with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, amidst slowing economic growth [1] - Gold prices have been hovering around $3,350, supported by stable investment demand and a 25-month high in gold ETF holdings at 2,882 tons [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Factors - Global gold ETFs saw a record inflow of 259 tons in the first seven months of the year, the largest since 2020, while demand for gold bars and coins remains strong [2] - Central banks are expected to increase foreign reserves by over 1,000 tons for the fourth consecutive year, providing a solid foundation to mitigate downside risks [2] - Industrial demand for silver is projected to grow by about 3% this year, driven by electrification and solar energy, despite manufacturers reducing silver load per battery [2] Group 3: Speculative Positions - Speculative positions in the COMEX futures market for silver are currently at 22 million ounces, significantly lower than last year's peak of 31 million ounces, indicating a lack of confidence [2] - The net position for silver speculators is currently at 208 million ounces, down from the June peak of 332 million ounces, highlighting potential for accumulation if technical outlook improves [2] Group 4: Future Catalysts - The market is focused on identifying potential catalysts for upward movement, particularly in silver, where unexpected policy support from China or a surge in solar installations could highlight structural deficits [4] - Any pullback in the recently strengthened dollar index could serve as a release valve for gold and silver prices [4] - ETF fund flows and speculative position data are crucial indicators of market confidence changes [4]