药品终端市场全年预降2.9％背后，支付错配与创新洪流下的生存法则

Core Insights - The Chinese pharmaceutical terminal market is expected to decline by 2.9% in 2025, with hospital channels down 5.7% and retail pharmacies slightly down by 0.4% [1][2] - The industry is experiencing a significant transformation as it shifts from a "generic drug powerhouse" to an "innovation-driven" model, with 403 innovative drugs approved in the last five years [2][5] Market Challenges - The decline in market performance is attributed to a mismatch between payment structures and the pace of innovative supply, with an average price reduction of 60% in innovative drug negotiations [2][4] - The hospital market faces challenges from the optimization of drug usage structures, with a notable decrease in the share of generic and traditional Chinese medicines [4][5] Opportunities for Growth - Despite current challenges, the long-term outlook remains positive, driven by increasing health demands, optimized payment structures, and innovation in supply [5][6] - The aging population is projected to create a silver economy exceeding 10 trillion yuan by 2025, with healthcare consumption accounting for 35% and a compound annual growth rate of over 15% [6][7] Strategic Shifts - The industry is transitioning from passive growth to proactive evolution, with five structural changes identified: artificial intelligence, biotechnology, payment reform, the silver economy, and internationalization [5][7] - Retail pharmacies are encouraged to shift from merely selling drugs to providing comprehensive health solutions, leveraging AI to enhance their service offerings and consumer trust [6][7]