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美小盘股还有机会吗
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-20 12:05

Core Viewpoint - Small-cap stocks in the U.S. have been overlooked, with initial optimism at the beginning of the year due to anticipated interest rate cuts, but recent analysis indicates a lack of momentum in this sector [1][5]. Performance Analysis - The Russell 2000 index has shown better performance than the S&P 500 since August, but this trend may not last, as the recent gains are attributed to rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts rather than the earnings outlook for small-cap stocks [1][5]. - Year-to-date, the Russell 2000 index has increased by approximately 2%, lagging behind the S&P 500's gain of about 9% [5]. Market Conditions - Small-cap stocks are generally more sensitive to changes in borrowing costs and economic conditions due to their higher debt levels and reliance on external financing [5]. - The proportion of loss-making companies within the Russell 2000 index is at a historical high, contributing to investor hesitance [8]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that for small-cap stocks to perform well, conditions such as a significant economic downturn or a very strong economy are necessary, which are currently lacking [8]. - Despite the underperformance, there are still optimistic views regarding the potential for the Russell 2000 index to outperform the S&P 500, especially with the ongoing advancements in AI and the potential for a shift in investor focus towards undervalued sectors [8][9]. Valuation Insights - The Russell 2000 index's price-to-earnings ratio is currently above average at 16.3 times, indicating limited opportunities for growth [8]. - The price-to-book ratio of small-cap stocks is lower than that of large-cap stocks, suggesting they may be undervalued [9]. IPO Activity - Since the beginning of 2025, there have been 95 IPOs in the U.S. raising $12.9 billion, compared to 73 IPOs raising $16 billion in 2024, indicating a potential increase in the quality of small-cap stocks [9].