LPR连续三个月持稳，四季度仍有降息空间

Core Viewpoint - The latest LPR (Loan Prime Rate) quotes remain unchanged, with the 1-year rate at 3.0% and the 5-year rate at 3.5%, marking three consecutive months of stability [1][3] Group 1: LPR Stability - The LPR quotes for both terms remained unchanged in August, aligning with market expectations due to stable policy rates and rising market interest rates [3][4] - The LPR has not changed since May, following a 10 basis point reduction in response to the reverse repurchase rate, indicating a period of observation for policy effectiveness [4] Group 2: Bank Profitability and LPR Adjustment - Commercial banks are lacking the motivation to lower LPR quotes due to historically low net interest margins, which stood at 1.42% in the first half of 2025, down 0.01 percentage points from the previous quarter [4][5] - The stability of policy rates, including the 7-day reverse repurchase rate at 1.4%, contributes to the lack of incentive for banks to reduce LPR quotes [4][6] Group 3: Reverse Repo Operations - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has increased the scale of reverse repurchase operations, conducting a 616 billion yuan operation on August 20, maintaining the operation rate at 1.4% [6][7] - The net injection from these operations is aimed at supporting fiscal policies and facilitating credit expansion for banks, with significant government bond issuance also influencing liquidity needs [7] Group 4: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - Analysts predict potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the fourth quarter, which could lead to lower LPR quotes, stimulating financing demand [8][9] - The PBOC is expected to maintain a stable monetary policy while utilizing structural tools to guide financial resources to key sectors, with a focus on liquidity release to meet various market demands [9][10]