一线楼市“硬通货”神话破灭？单价5万跌至1.5万仍难变现

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in major cities is experiencing a significant downturn, with property values being reassessed and liquidity issues arising for many homeowners [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Property prices in non-core areas of first-tier cities have rapidly declined, with new residential sales area dropping by 12.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, and the listing volume of second-hand homes increasing by over 30% [3]. - In a specific metro line area, new home prices peaked at nearly 50,000 yuan per square meter in 2020, but by 2024, owners were listing at 32,000 yuan per square meter, and developers were offering promotions starting at 18,000 yuan per square meter in 2025, yet sales remained sluggish [3][5]. Group 2: Buyer Sentiment - The decline in the real estate market is not solely due to reduced purchasing power; rather, there is a fundamental shift in buyer confidence. A survey indicated that the proportion of residents preferring to save increased by 2.3 percentage points, while those inclined to invest decreased [5]. - The mindset of potential buyers has shifted from "fear of missing out" to "fear of overpaying," leading to more cautious decision-making in the context of slowing income growth and a pressured job market [5][7]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average urban household now owns more than 1.1 homes, indicating a transition from absolute housing shortage to structural oversupply, particularly in cities with population outflows and insufficient industrial support [7]. - The phenomenon of "having a price but no market" is becoming the norm, as the financial investment aspect of real estate diminishes, returning focus to the fundamental need for housing [7][9]. Group 4: Changing Buyer Priorities - In this transitional phase of the real estate market, genuine housing needs are becoming the primary driver of transactions, with factors such as education, commuting, and community environment taking precedence over speculative buying [7][9]. - Experts suggest that buyers should assess their real housing needs, stable repayment capabilities, and have realistic expectations regarding price fluctuations, as the price correction process reflects a return to value [9].