SF Holding(SZ:002352) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-08-20 12:34Industry Overview - In July 2025, the express delivery industry in China reported a business revenue of 120.64 billion yuan and a business volume of 16.40 billion pieces, representing year-on-year growth of 8.9% and 15.1% respectively [1] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative express delivery business revenue reached 839.42 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, while the cumulative business volume was 112.05 billion pieces, growing by 18.7% year-on-year [1] Company Performance in July 2025 - SF Express led the industry with a business revenue of 18.657 billion yuan and a volume of 1.377 billion pieces, achieving a revenue growth of 15.0% and a volume growth of 33.7% year-on-year [2] - Other companies reported the following revenues and volume: Shentong (4.287 billion yuan, +10.0%, 2.181 billion pieces, +11.9%), Yunda (4.120 billion yuan, +3.8%, 2.162 billion pieces, +7.6%), and YTO (5.371 billion yuan, +12.1%, 2.583 billion pieces, +20.8%) [2] - The market shares for these companies were as follows: SF Express (8.4%), Shentong (13.3%), Yunda (13.2%), and YTO (15.8%) [2] Company Performance from January to July 2025 - For the first seven months of 2025, SF Express reported a business revenue of 127.812 billion yuan (+10.9%) and a volume of 9.190 billion pieces (+26.9%) [3] - Other companies' revenues and volumes were: Shentong (28.980 billion yuan, +14.8%, 14.528 billion pieces, +19.3%), Yunda (28.851 billion yuan, +7.1%, 14.888 billion pieces, +15.1%), and YTO (37.943 billion yuan, +13.9%, 17.446 billion pieces, +21.6%) [3] - The market shares for these companies were: SF Express (8.2%), Shentong (13.0%), Yunda (13.3%), and YTO (15.6%) [3] Pricing and Competition Trends - The trend towards lighter and smaller packages, along with intensified price competition, has impacted the industry’s single-ticket revenue [4] - A recent meeting by the postal bureau emphasized the need to combat excessive competition, suggesting a shift towards more orderly competition in the express delivery sector [4] - As price increases are gradually implemented, the profitability of express delivery companies is expected to improve, reducing the likelihood of a return to the severe price wars seen in 2020 [4] Investment Outlook - The express delivery sector is currently viewed as undervalued, with continued growth in the e-commerce market and new demand from lower-tier markets and reverse logistics [4] - Companies such as ZTO Express, YTO Express, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu Express are recommended for attention due to their potential in the growing market [4] - With improving cyclical expectations, there are opportunities for demand recovery in the mid-to-high-end express market, making SF Express a recommended focus for investment [4]