美国M2重回峰值水平，通胀第二波已在路上？

Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of the M2 money supply to pre-pandemic peak levels and rising inflation indicators have raised concerns about a potential "second wave" of inflation in the U.S. economy, reminiscent of the inflationary cycles of the 1970s [1][4][11] Group 1: Money Supply and Inflation Indicators - The M2 money supply has returned to its historical peak levels, with an annual growth rate approaching 5%, a level historically associated with inflation risks [4][2] - Recent data shows the Producer Price Index (PPI) has risen to a high of 3.3%, indicating cost pressures at the wholesale level, which typically precede consumer price increases [8][6] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data has been described as "quite hot," further supporting inflation concerns [6] Group 2: Historical Context and Economic Warnings - Economists warn that the current situation may mirror the 1970s, where premature easing of monetary policy led to successive waves of inflation, ultimately resulting in severe economic consequences [11][13] - The lessons from the 1970s highlight the dangers of complacency among central bank officials, who may mistakenly believe they have conquered inflation, leading to policy missteps [13][11] Group 3: Political and Economic Pressures - There is a growing divergence between the White House and the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, with calls for interest rate cuts to stimulate economic growth and ease debt burdens [14] - The potential for renewed inflation could undermine the credibility of the current administration, with risks associated with political pressures on the Federal Reserve to lower rates [14]