现金流吃紧、存货金额激增555%，赴港IPO的海清智元能撑起暴涨的估值吗？

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen Haiqing Zhiyuan Technology Co., Ltd. has submitted an application for a mainboard listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, attracting market attention with a projected revenue growth of 347% in 2024 [1] Financial Performance - Revenue figures for Haiqing Zhiyuan from 2022 to 2024 are 225 million RMB, 117 million RMB, and 523 million RMB respectively, with a significant decline of 47.09% in 2023 compared to 2022, followed by a substantial increase of 347% in 2024 compared to 2023 [2][3] - The company recorded net losses of 4.93 million RMB in 2022 and 18.41 million RMB in 2023, but achieved a profit of 40.41 million RMB in 2024, indicating a successful turnaround [3] Market Position - Haiqing Zhiyuan ranks first among the top five players in the multispectral AI sector, holding approximately 3.5% of the market share, which collectively accounts for about 10.9% of the sector [1] Cash Flow and Working Capital - The company has shown volatility in cash flow, with net cash flow from operating activities being negative in most periods, totaling a net outflow of 13.57 million RMB over three years and one quarter [4] - Trade receivables increased significantly from 21.87 million RMB in 2022 to 146 million RMB in 2024, growing nearly sixfold, which is much faster than revenue growth [4] Inventory and Production Capacity - Inventory turnover days increased dramatically from 44 days in 2024 to 206 days in the first quarter of 2025, attributed to more cautious settlement policies and seasonal factors [5] - The production capacity utilization rate fluctuated significantly, dropping from 31% in 2022 to 24% in 2023, then rising to 87% in 2024, and falling again to 36% in early 2025 [5] Valuation and Funding - The company’s valuation surged from 1 billion RMB post-C round financing in October 2024 to 3.55 billion RMB after D round financing in July 2025, reflecting a more than 250% increase [5][7] - The IPO aims to raise funds for enhancing R&D capabilities, expanding production capacity, and accelerating global market penetration, despite a declining trend in R&D expenditure as a percentage of revenue [7]