Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-20 13:28Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments significantly impact HSBC Holdings' stock performance, with 2025's interest rate stability and hints of future rate cuts leading to notable stock price volatility due to geopolitical risks and fiscal expansion pressures [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Transmission Mechanism - The Federal Reserve maintains the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5%, with only two rate cuts planned for 2025, totaling 50 basis points, which is below market expectations of four cuts [1] - Market expectations regarding the Fed's rate cut timing have fluctuated, causing stock price volatility; for instance, after the July 30 Fed meeting, the probability of a September rate cut dropped from 65% to 30%, resulting in a 2.3% drop in HSBC's Hong Kong stock [1] Group 2: Currency Fluctuations - The Fed's policies influence HSBC's cross-border business through the dollar exchange rate, impacting the company's operations and profitability [1] Group 3: Capital Flows - Adjustments in Fed policy lead to a global reallocation of capital, affecting HSBC's funding and investment strategies [1] Group 4: Credit Risk - The Fed's policies contribute to a slowdown in the U.S. economy, which in turn affects the credit quality of HSBC's loan assets [1] Group 5: Market Expectations - Uncertainty in the Fed's policy path amplifies valuation volatility for HSBC, with analysts revising profit expectations downwards; for example, the 2025 net profit forecast was reduced from $14.5 billion to $12.4 billion, a decline of 14.5% [1] Group 6: Asset and Liability Management - In HSBC's Americas business, loan pricing is linked to Fed rates, limiting the upside for new loan yields while only 35% of existing loans are floating rate, restricting benefits from rising rates [2] - The cost of deposits in the U.S. has risen to 2.1%, a 40 basis point increase from 2024, significantly higher than the 1.3% in Asia, further compressing net interest margins [2] - By Q2 2025, the net interest margin for HSBC's North American business narrowed to 2.8%, a year-on-year decline of 15 basis points [2] Group 7: Foreign Exchange Losses - In Q2 2025, the strong dollar led to exchange losses of $1.2 billion in HSBC's cross-border trade financing, accounting for 19% of the quarter's pre-tax profit [3] - To mitigate currency risk, HSBC increased its dollar hedging positions, resulting in a 25% year-on-year increase in derivative trading volume and an additional $300 million in trading costs [3] Group 8: Emerging Market Dynamics - The issuance of $1 trillion in U.S. debt under the "Big and Beautiful" act has raised U.S. Treasury yields, exacerbating capital outflow pressures from emerging markets, with HSBC's loan growth in Latin America slowing from 12% in 2024 to 5% in the first half of 2025 [3] - Conversely, the Fed's rate cut expectations have driven global capital back to Asia, with HSBC's wealth management business in Asia seeing net inflows of $23 billion, an 18% year-on-year increase, partially offsetting declines in the Americas [3] Group 9: Credit Quality Concerns - HSBC has increased provisions for U.S. commercial real estate loans by $1.9 billion in Q2 2025, a 90% year-on-year increase, reflecting rising default rates [3] - Despite low unemployment, the credit card loan default rate rose from 2.1% in 2024 to 2.7% in Q2 2025, with HSBC's U.S. credit card business non-performing loan rate increasing to 3.2% [3] Group 10: Valuation Compression - HSBC's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) decreased from 12.8 times at the beginning of 2025 to 9.3 times by the end of July, below the average of 10.5 times for Asian peers, indicating market concerns over its U.S. business profitability [4] Conclusion - The dynamic interplay between the Federal Reserve's policies and HSBC's stock price is influenced by multiple channels, including interest rates, currency fluctuations, capital flows, and credit risks, leading to increased stock price volatility amid geopolitical risks and fiscal pressures [4]