十年高点A股还能上车吗？陈嘉禾：投资者需学会算账，关注性价比

Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market shows significant differences compared to the bull market ten years ago, with changes in industry logic and macroeconomic background necessitating a more cautious investment approach rather than a simplistic "bull market thinking" [4][7]. Market Comparison - The current market is at around 3700 points, significantly lower than the peak of 5178.19 points ten years ago, despite substantial increases in GDP, monetary scale, and market fundamentals over the past decade [4]. - The regulatory environment has changed drastically, with stricter controls on credit funds entering the market, leading to a more stable and sustainable "slow bull" market rather than a "crazy bull" market [4]. Valuation Levels - The overall valuation of the A-share market is not considered expensive, with major indices like CSI 300 and SSE 50 having dynamic P/E ratios around ten times, which is relatively low compared to global markets [5]. - There is significant divergence in individual stock valuations, with some stocks having P/E ratios in the tens or even hundreds, while others, especially in the Hong Kong market, have P/E ratios as low as six or seven times [6]. Influencing Factors - Various factors such as Sino-U.S. relations, real estate trends, and financial risk management will impact market fluctuations, highlighting the need for a more analytical approach to investment decisions [7]. Investment Strategy - The focus should be on valuation and cost-effectiveness rather than simply identifying bull markets. Investors should consider the real return rates of their investments rather than speculating on short-term market movements [13]. - The investment strategy should involve treating all assets as a single entity to assess overall profitability and growth rates, ensuring a clear decision-making process regarding holdings [13]. Sector Preferences - The preference leans towards large-cap companies due to their better understanding, lower risk of "black swan" events, and more favorable valuations compared to small-cap stocks [8]. - The current holdings are concentrated in sectors like finance, port operations, pharmaceuticals, and manufacturing, which are perceived to have high cost-effectiveness and strong competitive positions [12]. Market Potential - The Hong Kong market is viewed as more attractive due to its significantly lower valuations compared to the A-share market, with an average P/E ratio of around six to eight times, presenting a 40% discount relative to A-shares [10].