Core Viewpoint - The trading strategy betting on emerging market currencies against the US dollar has yielded one of the most attractive returns of the decade, with potential for continued performance in the short term [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The more dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, combined with the cautious approach of emerging market central banks, is expected to support the strengthening of developing market currencies against the US dollar [1] - An index tracking returns from eight emerging market arbitrage trades driven by shorting the dollar has risen over 10% this year, potentially recording the largest annual gain since 2017 [1] Group 2: Central Bank Policies - The average stance of emerging market central banks remains cautious, indicating that actual policy rates are sustainable [1] - Market expectations suggest a more dovish Federal Reserve by 2026, which contributes to the stability of the dollar despite a resurgence of interest from international investors in US equities [1]
花旗：新兴市场货币套利回报亮眼 短期仍有空间
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-20 14:01