AbbVie Rises 11.5% in a Month: Buy, Hold or Sell the Stock?

Core Insights - AbbVie's stock has increased by 11.5% in the past month due to strong second-quarter performance, beating earnings and sales estimates with earnings of $2.97 per share, a 12.1% year-over-year increase [1][2] Financial Performance - Revenues reached $15.42 billion, reflecting a 6.6% year-over-year increase, driven by strong sales of key drugs such as Rinvoq and Skyrizi, alongside contributions from newer drugs like Ubrelvy and Elahere [2][3] - AbbVie raised its revenue and EPS guidance for 2025, expecting adjusted EPS between $11.88-$12.08 and total revenues around $60.5 billion, up from previous estimates [3] Product Performance - AbbVie has successfully launched new immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which are expected to replace declining sales from Humira, generating combined sales of $11.6 billion in the first half of 2025 [5][7] - Skyrizi and Rinvoq are projected to achieve combined sales exceeding $25 billion in 2025 and over $31 billion by 2027, with Skyrizi annualizing at nearly $18 billion and Rinvoq at over $8 billion [8][9] Oncology and Neuroscience Growth - The oncology segment generated $3.3 billion in the first half of 2025, a 4.2% year-over-year increase, supported by new drug launches and the addition of antibody-drug conjugates [11][13] - Sales in the neuroscience portfolio increased by 20.3% to nearly $5 billion, driven by products like Botox Therapeutic and newer migraine treatments [14] Acquisition Strategy - AbbVie has engaged in over 30 M&A transactions since early 2024, focusing on immunology, oncology, and neuroscience to enhance its early-stage pipeline [15][16] - Recent acquisitions include Capstan Therapeutics, adding a potential first-in-class CAR-T therapy to its immunology pipeline [16] Challenges and Market Dynamics - Humira's sales have declined over 50% in the first half of 2025 due to biosimilar erosion, with expectations of continued decline as more plans adopt exclusionary formularies [17] - Sales of Juvederm fillers have also decreased by 22.2% in the first half of 2025, impacted by macroeconomic challenges and weakened consumer sentiment [18] Stock Performance and Valuation - AbbVie's stock has gained 19.3% year-to-date, outperforming the industry and S&P 500 [19] - The stock trades at a price/earnings ratio of 15.31, higher than the industry average of 14.46, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to some peers [22] Future Outlook - AbbVie anticipates returning to mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2025, driven by the performance of Skyrizi and Rinvoq, with no significant loss of exclusivity events expected for the remainder of the decade [28][29]