全球市场屏住呼吸，等待美联储“操舵”

Core Insights - Financial markets are currently in a relatively calm state, with reduced volatility in the dollar and gold, but there is high anticipation for Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference [1] - The market is more focused on the overall atmosphere and tone of Powell's speech rather than the specific wording, as the sentiment conveyed can significantly influence trading decisions [1][2] - The term "risk balance" is crucial; if Powell emphasizes this, it may signal a shift towards considering economic and employment factors over merely controlling inflation, potentially indicating a precursor to interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The market is not seeking explicit policy answers but is waiting for Powell's attitude and the overall ambiance of his speech [1] - The "stage presence" of Powell during the speech is critical, as his demeanor and the audience's reactions could impact market sentiment [1] - Powell is expected to maintain a level of ambiguity in his statements to avoid being constrained by market expectations, which could lead to unintended consequences [2] Group 2 - Powell faces a dilemma; he must balance being neither too dovish, which could reignite inflation, nor too hawkish, which could lead to market downturns and economic decline [2] - The market is essentially anticipating a performance from Powell, where even subtle cues like his eye contact and pauses could influence trading decisions [2]