BTC与ETH市场震荡回调 XBIT解析背后多重因素及最新展望

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin (BTC) reached a historical high of $124,128 but has since declined to $113,597, marking an 8.5% drop from its peak, with a weekly decline of 4.8% and a 24-hour drop of 1.3% [1][3] Group 1: Bitcoin Market Dynamics - The recent decline in Bitcoin's price has triggered a broader pullback in the cryptocurrency market, with a total liquidation of $450.55 million in the past 24 hours [1][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) data exceeding expectations has heightened concerns about the Federal Reserve's potential pause on interest rate cuts, impacting risk assets like Bitcoin [3] - Key support levels have been breached, with $112,000 identified as a critical short-term support; a drop below $110,000 could lead to panic selling [3] - Investor sentiment has turned pessimistic as retail investors show decreased willingness to hold positions following Bitcoin's drop below $113,000 [3] - Historical patterns suggest that extreme bearish sentiment may precede a market reversal, as seen in June when BTC rebounded 26% after a similar decline [3] Group 2: Ethereum Market Response - Ethereum (ETH) has also experienced a decline, dropping 4.5% from a weekly high of $4,350 to a low of $4,150, reflecting its strong correlation with Bitcoin [4] - The number of ETH in the staking withdrawal queue has reached a record high of 910,461 ETH (approximately $39.1 billion), creating pressure from profit-taking and rising borrowing costs [4] - The active address count for Ethereum has decreased by 28% from July's peak, indicating a contraction in market risk appetite [5] Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Strategies - Despite short-term volatility, industry experts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects, with predictions of a 50% chance of BTC surpassing $150,000 by year-end [5] - Ethereum faces challenges from staking unlocks and macroeconomic uncertainties, but long-term narratives remain strong, with some institutions projecting ETH could reach $6,000 to $8,000 by year-end [6] - The cryptocurrency market's volatility is attributed to high leverage and macroeconomic factors, with decentralized exchanges providing tools for investors to manage risks and capitalize on price fluctuations [6]