本周五，美联储“年度大戏”即将上演，鲍威尔一句话能掀翻全球市场？

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting is highly anticipated, with market expectations leaning towards a potential interest rate cut in September, influenced by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's statements [1][5][11]. Group 1: Market Expectations - Market bets indicate a greater than 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with some institutions speculating on a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [1][5]. - The current economic indicators, including mixed inflation and employment data, create uncertainty around Powell's potential decisions [5][9]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. CPI data showed a slowdown, providing some reassurance to the market, but core inflation remains stubbornly high, complicating the Fed's decision-making [5][9]. - The July non-farm payroll data was weak, raising concerns about the economic outlook, although stronger housing starts data provided some support for hawkish sentiments [5][9]. Group 3: Potential Market Reactions - Powell's statements could lead to significant market movements; a clear signal for a rate cut could boost U.S. stocks and weaken the dollar, while a cautious approach could dampen market sentiment [7][9]. - The outcome of Powell's speech is expected to influence global capital flows, particularly towards emerging markets if the dollar depreciates [7][9]. Group 4: Historical Context - Historically, the Jackson Hole meeting has been a critical point for the Fed to signal policy changes, with past events leading to notable market volatility [9].