LPR连续三个月持稳 四季度仍有降息空间

Core Viewpoint - The latest LPR (Loan Prime Rate) quotes remain unchanged, with the 1-year rate at 3.0% and the 5-year rate at 3.5%, marking three consecutive months of stability [1][3][4]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The LPR quotes for both terms remained unchanged in August, aligning with market expectations due to stable policy rates and rising market interest rates [3][4]. - The LPR has not changed since May, following a 10 basis point reduction in response to the reverse repo rate, indicating a period of observation for policy effectiveness [4]. Group 2: Banking Sector Dynamics - Commercial banks lack the motivation to lower LPR quotes due to historically low net interest margins, which stood at 1.42% in the first half of 2025, down 0.01 percentage points from the previous quarter [4][6]. - The stability of policy rates, including the 7-day reverse repo rate at 1.4%, contributes to the lack of incentive for banks to reduce LPR quotes [4][9]. Group 3: Reverse Repo Operations - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has increased the scale of reverse repo operations, conducting a 616 billion yuan operation on August 20, maintaining the operation rate at 1.4% [6][7]. - The net injection from these operations indicates a strategy to support credit expansion for banks and manage liquidity effectively [7]. Group 4: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - Analysts predict potential interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, which could lead to a decrease in LPR quotes, aimed at stimulating internal financing demand [8][9]. - The PBOC is expected to continue using structural monetary policy tools to guide financial resources towards key sectors, while maintaining a stable overall liquidity environment [8][9].