LPR连续三月持稳 四季度仍有降息空间

Core Viewpoint - The latest LPR (Loan Prime Rate) quotes remain unchanged, with the 1-year rate at 3% and the 5-year rate at 3.5%, reflecting stability in monetary policy and market conditions [1][3][4] LPR Stability - The LPR has remained unchanged for three consecutive months, primarily due to stable policy rates and rising market interest rates, which limit banks' motivation to lower LPR quotes [3][4] - The current LPR quotes are influenced by the unchanged 7-day reverse repo rate of 1.4% and a lack of significant downward movement in MLF rates [4][6] Bank Profitability and LPR Adjustment - Commercial banks are facing historical low net interest margins, with the latest figure at 1.42%, which has decreased by 0.01 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating pressure on profitability [3][6] - The lack of incentive for banks to lower LPR quotes is attributed to their current profitability challenges and the stable interest rate environment [4][5] Reverse Repo Operations - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has increased the scale of reverse repo operations, conducting a net injection of 4,975 billion yuan on August 20, 2023, to support liquidity in the banking system [6][7] - The PBOC's approach aims to maintain a balance between adequate liquidity and avoiding excessive monetary easing that could lead to inflationary pressures [7][10] Future Monetary Policy Outlook - Analysts predict potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions in the fourth quarter, which could lead to lower LPR quotes and stimulate financing demand [8][9] - The focus will remain on structural monetary policy tools to direct financial resources to key sectors, with a cautious approach to overall monetary policy [9][10] Housing Market Considerations - There is an expectation for regulatory measures to further support the housing market, potentially leading to a more significant reduction in long-term LPR quotes to alleviate high mortgage rates and stimulate demand [11]