Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-20 16:31Group 1 - The Jackson Hole central bank conference is set to begin, with a focus on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's final speech, which is expected to be more dovish amid rising market expectations for interest rate cuts [1][2] - Recent weak employment data has led to increased market speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by at least 25 basis points in September, with another cut anticipated later in the year [1][3] - President Trump has expressed concerns about Powell's stance on interest rates, particularly regarding the impact on the real estate market, indicating a push for significant rate reductions [2][3] Group 2 - The U.S. real estate market is struggling, with low inventory pushing prices up; a significant rate cut is seen as necessary to stimulate housing construction and market recovery [3][4] - The Dow Jones U.S. Homebuilders Select Index has shown a technical upward trend, indicating market optimism driven by rate cut expectations, with notable increases in individual stocks such as D.R. Horton and Lennar [3][4] - Market analysts believe that sectors traditionally benefiting from rate cuts have been performing strongly, reflecting confidence in the Federal Reserve's potential return to a rate-cutting cycle [4] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy framework, established in 2012, is under review, with potential changes to be implemented after Powell's term ends in May 2024 [4][5] - There is speculation that the Federal Reserve may abandon the "average inflation targeting" strategy, which was deemed ineffective in the post-pandemic environment, in favor of a singular 2% inflation target [4][5] - Powell has previously indicated the likelihood of changes to the inflation strategy, acknowledging the increased volatility in inflation and the need for a reassessment of economic conditions since 2020 [5]