LPR连续3个月 “按兵不动” 还有多大调降空间？

Core Viewpoint - The current low levels of both corporate and personal loan rates indicate that lowering the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is not an urgent priority, as the marginal effect of interest rate cuts is diminishing and is not the key factor for stabilizing growth and promoting consumption [1][4]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The LPR has remained unchanged for three consecutive months, with the 1-year rate at 3.0% and the 5-year rate at 3.5% as of August 20 [1][2]. - The stability of the LPR is attributed to the unchanged policy interest rates, particularly the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which serves as the new pricing anchor for the LPR [3][4]. - The lack of motivation for banks to lower the LPR is due to the historical low net interest margins, which stood at 1.42% in the first half of the year, reflecting a slight decline from the previous quarter [3][4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy framework has shifted towards "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy," indicating a low probability of further short-term easing measures [5][6]. - Despite the continuation of a supportive monetary policy stance, there is no immediate impetus for active easing, as the central bank is in a relatively comfortable position regarding its multiple objectives [6]. - The necessity for macroeconomic policy adjustments remains, as indicators show some setbacks in the recovery of the real economy, including a decline in retail sales growth and ongoing pressure in real estate investment [7]. Group 3: Future Considerations - Future adjustments to the LPR may depend on external factors, such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could create a more accommodating environment for domestic monetary policy [7]. - There is a possibility of further downward adjustments to the LPR, particularly for the 5-year and above rates, to alleviate high mortgage rates and stimulate housing demand [7].