全球股市分化，日经指数跌1.51%，纳斯达克跌1.01%，而A股逆势上涨，显示独立行情特征。

Core Logic Analysis - Global stock market decline is driven by weak U.S. economic data, with July non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, significantly below the expected 110,000, indicating a sharp cooling in the labor market and raising recession concerns [3] - Market expectations for Federal Reserve policy have fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with some betting on a 50 basis point cut, as officials support further easing [3] - The U.S. dollar index showed volatility, dropping 0.36% to 97.85 on August 15, reflecting risk aversion, but rebounded slightly in subsequent days, indicating insufficient confidence in the U.S. economy [3] A-shares Independent Uptrend - Domestic policy support includes the central bank's implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, along with the issuance of long-term special bonds to stimulate infrastructure investment and consumption [9] - Economic data shows improvement, with July industrial output increasing by 5.7% and retail sales rising by 3.7%, indicating a gradual recovery in domestic demand [9] - Northbound capital recorded a net purchase of 35.876 billion HKD on August 15, marking a historical high for single-day net purchases, reflecting foreign investors' confidence in A-shares [9] Key Analysis Dimensions - Global market interconnectivity suggests that continued weak U.S. economic data or inflation figures could lead to a decline in global risk appetite, prompting foreign capital to withdraw from A-shares [13] - The sustainability of domestic policies is crucial, with attention on whether the August LPR will be lowered, as further cuts could bolster market confidence [13] - Upcoming economic data, including August PMI and subsequent industrial output and consumption figures, will validate the recovery trajectory, influencing the sustainability of A-shares' independent trend [13] Data Verification and Action Recommendations - The first step involves collecting data on U.S. August PMI, China's August LPR, and real-time northbound capital flow by 15:30 [19] - The second step includes correlational analysis by 16:00, assessing the implications of U.S. PMI data and LPR adjustments on A-share positions [21] - Short-term strategies suggest maintaining core positions while avoiding high-risk entries if A-share indices approach key resistance levels without volume support [21]