美联储7月会议纪要：多数认为通胀比就业风险高，担心美债脆弱

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Meeting Insights - The recent Federal Reserve meeting revealed a lack of consensus among decision-makers regarding inflation, employment, and the impact of tariffs from the Trump administration, with a predominant concern over inflation risks compared to employment risks, indicating a hawkish stance [1][3] - The FOMC decided to maintain interest rates, with two members voting against this decision, marking the first time in over 30 years that such dissent occurred among Fed officials [1][3] - Most participants believe that inflation risks outweigh employment risks, while a couple of members expressed that employment risks are more pronounced [3][4] Group 2: Inflation and Tariff Impacts - Many participants noted that the overall inflation rate in the U.S. remains slightly above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, with recent increases in goods price inflation and a slowdown in service price inflation [4][5] - There is a consensus that the full impact of tariffs on inflation may take time to manifest in consumer prices, with some members indicating that foreign exporters have only absorbed a small portion of the new tariffs, leading to domestic businesses and consumers bearing the brunt of the costs [5][6] - Some members expect that the increase in tariffs will lead to a one-time price hike, while others warned that tariff-related factors could cause persistent inflation, complicating the distinction between tariff impacts and underlying inflation trends [7][8] Group 3: Financial Market Vulnerabilities - Participants expressed concerns about vulnerabilities in the financial system, particularly regarding the U.S. Treasury market and the role of market makers, with worries about insufficient market depth [10][11] - There is a recognition of the potential impact of stablecoin legislation on financial stability, with expectations that increased stablecoin usage could enhance payment system efficiency and raise demand for supporting assets like U.S. Treasuries [10][11] - Discussions highlighted the need for close monitoring of the financial system and the implications of stablecoins on monetary policy execution [11]