短期利空集聚 合成橡胶预计偏弱震荡

Core Viewpoint - The synthetic rubber market is experiencing downward pressure due to weak demand from the tire sector and declining crude oil prices, leading to a forecast of weak oscillation for synthetic rubber futures contracts [1][5]. Group 1: Cost Support Weakening - The main raw materials for synthetic rubber, butadiene and styrene, are derived from the oil refining process, with butadiene accounting for 95% of the cost in polybutadiene rubber and approximately 70% in styrene-butadiene rubber [2]. - Recent positive signals from the US-Russia meeting have led to a decrease in geopolitical risk premium in the oil market, contributing to a continuous decline in crude oil prices and weakening cost support for synthetic rubber [2]. Group 2: Production Recovery - Domestic production of polybutadiene rubber saw a slight increase in July, with a total output of 129,200 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6.7% and a year-on-year increase of 27.0% [3]. - Despite some facilities undergoing maintenance, the resumption of operations at several plants is expected to sustain production growth into August [3]. Group 3: Demand Decline - The inventory levels of semi-steel tire manufacturers have remained high, with an average turnover period of 46.73 days as of August 14, reflecting a month-on-month increase [4]. - Tire exports have shown a decline, with June exports of passenger car tires at 279,100 tons, down 3.5% month-on-month and 11.8% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in demand from key markets like the EU [4]. Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - The combination of reduced geopolitical risk, increased production capacity, and declining demand pressures suggests that synthetic rubber futures are likely to maintain a weak oscillation trend in the short term [5].