美联储会议纪要：降息未获广泛支持

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July FOMC meeting minutes indicate a cautious stance on monetary policy due to high inflation risks stemming from trade tariffs, with most policymakers preferring to wait for more evidence before making any rate cuts [2][3]. Group 1: FOMC Meeting Outcomes - The FOMC voted 9-2 to maintain the federal funds rate at a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the first time since 1993 that multiple Fed officials voted against the decision to hold rates steady [3]. - The minutes reveal ongoing debates among officials regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation and the appropriate policy stance, with a general expectation of short-term inflation increases [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, a weak U.S. labor market report showed significantly lower-than-expected job growth, with the unemployment rate rising and labor force participation dropping to its lowest level since late 2022 [5]. - The derivatives market has increased expectations for a rate cut in September, with an 85% probability of a 25 basis point reduction priced in [5]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - The July core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to a five-month high of 3.1%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.9% month-over-month, with a year-over-year core PPI growth of 3.7%, the highest since March [5]. - Economists express concerns that the uneven transmission of tariffs will continue to push inflation higher in the coming months, complicating the Fed's ability to distinguish between one-time tariff effects and long-term inflation pressures [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole is anticipated to clarify his stance on whether to prioritize protecting the labor market or addressing inflation deviating from the Fed's 2% target [6]. - Analysts suggest that the Fed's dual mandate faces challenges, with Powell likely indicating that the pace of rate cuts will depend on how inflationary pressures are offset by a slowing labor market [6].