招商宏观：重点关注基建相关财政支出增速的回补效应

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the importance of infrastructure-related fiscal spending recovery in supporting the currently weak infrastructure investment growth, which is also a crucial part of the upstream "anti-involution" demand-side policy [1] Group 1: Infrastructure Spending - The acceleration of infrastructure spending is necessary to meet the annual budget, with cumulative year-on-year growth in public budget infrastructure spending from January to July being -5%, but expected to rebound to over 7% from August to December [1] - The local debt resolution for the year is likely nearing completion, with future efforts focusing on advancing special bond projects. As of August 20, the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds for the year reached 1.94 trillion, with the actual allocation of the originally planned 800 billion for new special bonds exceeding 940 billion [1] Group 2: Long-term Bonds and Financial Tools - The issuance progress of ultra-long-term special government bonds is nearing 80%, with an increase in the issuance scale of policy financial bonds from June to August, potentially preparing for new policy financial tools. As of August 20, the issuance progress of ultra-long-term special government bonds is close to 80%, compared to less than 60% in the same period last year [1] - The project initiation and funding collection progress for ultra-long-term special government bonds are both ahead of last year, indicating that the implementation situation is likely to be significantly better than last year [1]