财政主导时代来临，各国央行只能被动配合，而市场严阵以待

Core Viewpoint - Prominent investors like Ray Dalio are warning that major global economies are entering a "fiscal dominance" era, where rising government debt and borrowing costs exert significant political pressure on central banks, potentially compromising their primary mission of controlling inflation [1][2]. Group 1: Fiscal Pressure on Monetary Policy - The OECD projects that sovereign borrowing in high-income countries will reach a record $17 trillion in 2023, followed by $16 trillion in 2024, and $14 trillion in 2025, creating a dilemma for central banks trying to normalize their balance sheets [2]. - Central banks, after years of quantitative easing, are attempting to shrink their balance sheets through bond sales, but this raises bond yields and increases government debt servicing costs, leading to policy conflicts [2]. Group 2: Rising Borrowing Costs - In the UK, the yield on 30-year government bonds has reached 5.6%, close to a 25-year high, while in Germany, yields have surpassed 3% due to increased borrowing for infrastructure and defense spending [3]. Group 3: Market Concerns Over Political Interference - In the U.S., the yield spread between 2-year and 30-year Treasury bonds has widened to its highest level since early 2022, indicating market concerns over potential political interference in monetary policy [4]. - Analysts suggest that recent unusual market reactions to inflation data reflect fears of increased control over monetary policy by the White House, with expectations of multiple rate cuts by the end of next year [4]. Group 4: Extreme Risks of Fiscal Dominance - Ray Dalio warns that fiscal dominance could lead to extreme risks, such as a "debt death spiral," where governments are forced to borrow more to pay rising interest, potentially leading to currency devaluation [5]. - The volatility in the market may hinder governments from issuing long-term bonds, pushing them towards riskier short-term debt, which could make fiscal conditions more sensitive to interest rate fluctuations [5].