美股小盘股：表现欠佳但未来仍存转机？

Core Viewpoint - Small-cap stocks in the U.S. have been overlooked for a long time, but expectations for their performance have risen due to anticipated easing of interest rates by the Federal Reserve. However, recent reports indicate that small-cap stocks still lack momentum and may not sustain their recent performance [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Russell 2000 index, which measures small-cap stocks, has shown a year-to-date increase of approximately 2%, significantly lagging behind the S&P 500's increase of about 9% [3]. - Despite a brief period of outperformance against the S&P 500, analysts believe this momentum is tied more to expectations of Fed rate cuts rather than improvements in small-cap earnings prospects [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Conditions - Historically, small-cap stocks tend to perform well during extreme economic conditions, either recession or boom, but such conditions are currently not present [5]. - The proportion of loss-making companies within the Russell 2000 index is at a historical high, contributing to investor caution regarding small-cap stocks [5]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Some investors remain optimistic about small-cap stocks, citing potential for the Russell 2000 index to outperform the S&P 500 despite recent underperformance [5]. - The rapid development in the AI sector has raised bubble risks, reminiscent of the tech investment boom in the late 1990s, leading some investors to consider small-cap stocks as a safer bet [5]. Group 4: Valuation and Opportunities - The Russell 2000 index has a higher price-to-earnings ratio but a lower price-to-book ratio compared to the S&P 500, suggesting that small-cap stocks may be undervalued [6]. - The active IPO market in 2023, with 95 IPOs raising $12.9 billion, could enhance the quality of small-cap stocks and attract more investors [6].