Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that southbound funds have become a crucial driving force in the Hong Kong stock market, with their influence expected to deepen due to unique investment opportunities and long-term policy support [1][2] - Southbound funds account for over one-third of the daily net inflow in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's main board trading volume and hold nearly 15% of the free float market capitalization of Hong Kong stocks, both metrics having increased by over 30% since before 2024 [2] - Cumulative net inflow from southbound funds has reached $14 billion since 2025, surpassing the total for 2024, with daily inflows increasing by 84.6% year-on-year [2] Group 2 - Stocks included in the southbound trading scheme typically show strong performance prior to inclusion, with an average increase of 3.7% in the 30 days before inclusion, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 5.2% [3] - In February, 26 out of 27 stocks included in the southbound scheme rose in the 30 days prior, with an average absolute return of 41% and a relative return of 19% compared to the Hang Seng Index [3] - Post-inclusion, stocks may experience short-term pressure, with an average relative return of -2.0% over 30 days, but still show a long-term excess return of 4.6% over 90 days [3] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley has developed a southbound stock selection model (MSSBT) that accurately predicts stocks to be included in the scheme, achieving an average hit rate of 85% across the last four semi-annual inclusion cycles, with a peak of 97% in August 2024 [4] - The simulated portfolio under equal-weight allocation shows an average absolute return of 10.1% in the 30 days prior to inclusion, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 7.4% [4] - The model employs strict selection criteria, including market capitalization above 50 billion HKD and compliance with turnover rate standards, while excluding stocks with high ownership concentration [4] Group 4 - The latest forecast indicates that 19 stocks will be included in the southbound scheme in September, covering seven major sectors, with healthcare (6 stocks) and industrials (5 stocks) making up over 50% of the list [5][6] - The top five candidates by market capitalization include Cao Cao Inc (Industrials), Ying En Biological (Healthcare), Nanshan Aluminum International (Materials), Zhengli New Energy (Industrials), and Yunzhisheng (Information Technology) [6] Group 5 - The recommended strategy for maximizing returns involves entering positions one month prior to inclusion, diversifying risk through equal-weight allocation of selected stocks, and locking in short-term gains by selling on the official inclusion date [8]
摩根士丹利重磅策略：南向通成港股 “定海神针“ 周六福、云知声等或迎先机