盾博dbg：7月只有两位官员支持降息，但部分官员将在9月支持降息

Group 1 - The meeting minutes indicate that almost all officials support maintaining interest rates unchanged, with the pro-maintenance faction arguing that the impact of tariff policies on inflation remains unclear, while the opposing faction advocates for preemptive measures against potential economic downturn risks [2] - The July non-farm employment data was significantly revised down to 114,000 from the previous 206,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% [2] - Fed officials Waller and Bowman noted that price fluctuations caused by tariffs are one-time events and should not primarily influence monetary policy [2] Group 2 - Recent economic data shows structural inflation divergence, with goods price growth slowing to 1.7% while service sector inflation remains high at 4.2% [3] - The job market is deteriorating faster than expected, with the July unemployment rate exceeding 4% and job vacancy rates dropping to 5.3% [3] - The meeting minutes suggest that the Fed may be adjusting its policy framework, with Powell attempting to calculate "inflation excluding tariffs," reflecting confusion in addressing the impacts of new trade policies [3] - The Fed is increasingly focusing on financial stability risks, as indicated by a 2.1% decline in commercial real estate prices and a 15% rise in small business bankruptcy rates, showing the high-interest rate environment's impact on the real economy [3]