白酒能否王者归来？场景修复+政策回暖，板块修复可期

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector, particularly the baijiu segment, is showing signs of recovery with recent positive performance, although there are mixed results among leading brands [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The baijiu sector has seen a notable rise, with brands like Jiu Gui Jiu hitting the daily limit for two consecutive days, while the baijiu LOF (161725) achieved four consecutive days of gains [1]. - Despite a recent overall adjustment in the sector, Jiu Gui Jiu increased by 8%, while major brands like Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Wuliangye experienced declines [1]. - The current valuation of the baijiu sector is at a historical low, with the tracking index's P/E ratio at 18.92 times, which is at the 7.73% percentile historically [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The baijiu sector is expected to experience a turnaround driven by favorable policies and a recovery in consumer demand, as various consumption-boosting measures have been implemented [2]. - The recovery of banquet and gift consumption scenarios is anticipated, following a period of low demand due to previous restrictions [2]. - Seasonal factors, such as the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, are likely to further stimulate demand, with expectations of improved sales performance [2]. Group 3: Company Performance - Recent earnings reports indicate growth in revenue and net profit for major players in the baijiu sector, with Kweichow Moutai reporting a 7.3% revenue increase and 5.2% net profit growth for Q2 2025 [3]. - Other brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao also reported positive growth figures, with Wuliangye achieving a 6.1% revenue increase and 5.8% net profit growth for Q1 2025 [3]. - The overall sentiment from analysts suggests that the baijiu sector has completed its bottoming phase, with expectations for valuation recovery and gradual performance improvement [3].