

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities maintains a "buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) and raises the forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 by 34.3%, 17.68%, and 2.95% to CNY 21.659 billion, CNY 20.889 billion, and CNY 21.912 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of CNY 2.29, CNY 2.20, and CNY 2.31 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of CNY 81.039 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.48%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 12.361 billion, up 35.02% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 25.67%, an increase of 1.48 percentage points year-on-year, with specific margins for aluminum alloy products, alumina, and aluminum alloy processing products at 25.2%, 28.8%, and 23.3% respectively [3] Group 2: Cost and Profitability - The decline in electricity costs has contributed to profit growth, with coal prices significantly dropping this year, leading to lower electricity costs in the Shandong region where the company operates [4] - The company plans to repurchase shares worth no less than HKD 3 billion, reflecting management's confidence in future performance and long-term investment value [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - The company remains optimistic about the upward trend in aluminum prices for the second half of 2025, driven by low inventory levels and sustained demand from the photovoltaic and automotive sectors [5] - The forecast for aluminum prices is expected to fluctuate upwards, potentially exceeding CNY 21,000 per ton within the year, while the downside for alumina prices is limited due to cost support [5]