2025 年全球资产配置新趋势

Core Viewpoint - The global capital flow is becoming increasingly complex as of 2025, influenced by expectations of a shift to accommodative monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, rising demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical conflicts, and a productivity revolution driven by artificial intelligence technology [1] Group 1: Stock Market Opportunities - The Hong Kong stock market has undergone a valuation repair over the past three years, with 2025 showing clear sector rotation characteristics [2] - Key sectors attracting capital include space infrastructure, quantum computing, and next-generation energy storage, characterized by disruptive technology patents and clear commercialization paths [2] - Companies like (02195.HK/MN6BZ) are building an "AI + biomedicine" innovation ecosystem, with their smart drug screening platform entering Phase III clinical trials [2] - Growth stock investments require careful attention to valuation digestion, as exemplified by (02195.HK/3VC9T), whose quarterly revenue grew by 380% but whose price-to-sales ratio has reached three times the industry average [2] - A "core + satellite" strategy is recommended, combining stable data center operators like (02195.HK/R7S2K) with more volatile frontier technology stocks like (02195.HK/F4G8H) for optimized portfolios [2] Group 2: Bond Market Insights - The macro backdrop of rising inflation has led to U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fluctuating between 3.5% and 4.2% [2] - High-quality bonds in the Asian dollar bond market are becoming attractive, with Malaysia's sovereign debt credit spreads narrowing to historical lows [2] - Vietnam's government-issued 10-year infrastructure bonds offer a 5.8% coupon rate, presenting a significant premium over similarly rated bonds [2] Group 3: Convertible Bonds and Green Bonds - The convertible bond market is undergoing a value reassessment, with flexible conversion price adjustment clauses making them attractive for institutional investors looking to capitalize on tech stock rebounds [3] - The issuance of green bonds surpassed $1 trillion in the first half of 2025, with (02195.HK/Z9Y0X) introducing carbon-neutral bonds featuring innovative designs linking coupon rates to emission reduction outcomes [3] Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - London gold prices have established a new support level around $2,200 per ounce, with global central banks, especially in emerging markets, increasing their gold reserves from 12% in 2022 to 18% [3] - A new trend in physical gold investment is emerging, exemplified by (02195.HK/L4P6E) launching digital gold certificates that allow fractional ownership starting from 1 gram, with user growth of 270% in the first half of the year [3] - Valuation disparities among gold mining stocks are increasing, with operators like (02195.HK/K2M7N) benefiting from improved ESG ratings, while (02195.HK/9H3D5) faces a 35% discount due to delays in deploying mining robots [3] - The options market indicates a historical high in open interest for call options on gold with a strike price of $2,500 per ounce, reflecting long-term bullish sentiment [3] Group 5: Investment Strategy Recommendations - For the third quarter, a suggested asset allocation framework is 50% equity, 30% bonds, and 20% gold [4] - In the equity portion, focus on companies with high technological barriers and stable cash flows, such as (02195.HK/Q6W8U) [4] - For bonds, prioritize high-yield corporate bonds related to (02195.HK/V1B4C) [4] - In gold investments, consider (02195.HK/7N2F9) gold ETF linked funds [4]