超越俄罗斯，哈萨克斯坦今年人均GDP将居前苏联国家首位

Core Viewpoint - Kazakhstan is projected to have the highest GDP per capita among former Soviet states this year, surpassing Russia and Turkmenistan, according to the IMF [1][2]. Economic Performance - Kazakhstan's GDP grew by 6.3% in the first seven months of this year, with the real economy growing by 8.3%, services by 5.2%, and industry by 6.9% [2]. - The transportation and storage sector experienced significant growth, increasing by 22.5% [2]. Factors Driving Growth - The rapid economic growth is attributed to Kazakhstan's rich reserves of oil, gas, uranium, and other minerals, with energy and mineral exports being the main economic drivers [2]. - Ongoing reforms to improve the business environment have attracted more foreign investment and accelerated infrastructure development, particularly in transportation, logistics, and technology [2]. - Kazakhstan's strategic location at the crossroads of Eurasia enhances its economic potential, supported by participation in the Belt and Road Initiative and practical cooperation with partners like Russia, China, and the EU [2]. Market Dynamics - The shift of European oil imports from Russia to Kazakhstan has allowed Kazakhstan to sell oil at market prices, while Russian oil prices are capped at $60 per barrel due to sanctions [3]. - Many international companies have moved their distribution operations from Russia to Kazakhstan to avoid sanctions-related issues [3]. Economic Risks - Despite rapid growth, Kazakhstan's economy is highly dependent on the oil industry, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in international oil prices. A $1 drop in oil prices could result in a loss of approximately $570 million for Kazakhstan [3]. - The country faced a budget deficit of $7.7 billion last year and is currently dealing with inflation issues [3]. Future Outlook - The IMF forecasts Kazakhstan's economic growth rate to be 5% this year and 4.3% in 2026, indicating a generally positive economic outlook despite existing challenges [3].