2024年全球银行业年度评价报告-麦肯锡

Core Insights - The global banking industry has experienced its best performance since the 2007-2009 financial crisis, generating $7 trillion in revenue and $1.1 trillion in net profit in 2023, with a return on tangible equity (ROTE) of 11.7% [1][9][15] - Despite strong profitability, the market remains skeptical about the long-term value creation of banks, reflected in a price-to-book ratio of 0.9, the lowest among all industries [1][25][30] - A small percentage of banks (14%) are responsible for 80% of the industry's economic profit, indicating a growing distribution of high performance within the sector [1][76] Industry Performance - The banking sector's capital adequacy ratio stands at 12.8%, with liquidity at 77.2%, making it the most profitable sector globally [1][15] - The recent performance improvements are largely attributed to rising interest rates, raising concerns about sustainability if rates decline [1][16][34] - Labor productivity growth in banking has been inconsistent, with some banks even experiencing declines despite high technology investments [1][10][36] Winners and Strategies - Successful banks have combined structural strategies with strong execution capabilities, focusing on careful market selection, achieving scale in specific areas, and optimizing geographic positioning [2][69] - The concept of "management quotient" is highlighted as a differentiator, with about 10% of banks improving their ROTE significantly over the past five years [2][14][69] - High-performing banks have shown a path to "escape velocity," with 14% achieving a price-to-book ratio above 1 and a price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 13 [71][76] Challenges and Outlook - The banking industry faces ongoing challenges, including regulatory changes, competition from private credit and fintech, and the need for continuous investment in technology [1][16][57] - Future profitability may be threatened by potential declines in net interest margins if interest rates fall, which could revert ROTE to near the cost of equity [34][36] - The need for banks to adapt operationally to maintain performance levels is emphasized, as cost-cutting alone may not suffice to achieve desired returns [45][51]