财政担忧持续，日本10年期国债收益率创2008年以来新高

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market is experiencing a significant sell-off, with yields on 10-year and ultra-long government bonds reaching multi-decade highs due to ongoing concerns about fiscal expansion and inflation [1][6]. Group 1: Bond Yield Trends - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds rose to 1.61%, the highest since October 2008 [1]. - The 20-year bond yield reached 2.655%, marking the highest level since 1999 [1]. - The 30-year bond yield climbed to 3.18%, nearing the historical high of 3.2% set in July [1]. Group 2: Fiscal Concerns - The steepening of the yield curve reflects market worries about Japan's future fiscal discipline, especially after the ruling coalition's loss in the upper house elections in July [1]. - Investors anticipate potential new fiscal stimulus measures from the government, which could lead to a significant increase in bond issuance [6]. Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Persistent inflation pressures are negatively impacting ultra-long bonds and increasing the likelihood of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [1][7]. - Recent data indicates that aggressive traders are growing more confident about a potential rate hike in October, suggesting that the market may fully price in this expectation [7]. Group 4: Demand Dynamics - There has been a notable decline in demand from overseas investors, which is exacerbating upward pressure on yields [1][8]. - In July, net purchases of Japanese government bonds with maturities over 10 years by overseas investors fell to 480 billion yen (approximately $3.3 billion), only one-third of the amount purchased in June [8]. - The sharp decline in overseas investment raises concerns about the stability of the long-end of the yield curve [8].