“年卖100万辆将成生存底线”！汽车快消品化：半年改款、一年换代！丨人民智行

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry in China is experiencing a transformation towards a "fast-moving consumer goods" (FMCG) model, characterized by rapid vehicle updates and intense competition among manufacturers [1][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The average new car iteration rate among domestic manufacturers has risen to approximately 3.2 models per day, indicating a significant acceleration in product updates [1]. - The trend of "half-year facelifts and annual model changes" reflects the FMCG nature of the automotive market, which increases consumer choices but also intensifies competition among automakers [1][3]. - The average vehicle age in China is about 8 years, with traditional fuel vehicles having a replacement cycle of 6-8 years, while electric vehicles have a shorter cycle of 3-5 years [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The depreciation rate of electric vehicles has accelerated, with some models experiencing a first-year depreciation rate as high as 50% [4]. - The competition is shifting from merely increasing production to focusing on technology, brand, and ecosystem, as companies aim to establish a stronger market presence [2][10]. - The automotive market is evolving from a "spring and autumn" era of competition to a "warring states" era, where only the strongest will survive, with a sales volume of 1 million units becoming the new survival threshold [10]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly influenced by the rapid iteration of vehicle models, leading to a potential shift in purchasing decisions as they await newer models [4][9]. - The market is seeing a proliferation of large SUVs, with multiple manufacturers launching similar models, raising concerns about potential market saturation [8]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - Companies are under pressure to innovate continuously, leading to a focus on supply chain management efficiency as a competitive advantage [7]. - The automotive industry is expected to undergo significant consolidation, with a few leading companies dominating the market, while others may struggle to keep up [10].