Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that ZTO Express's stock price has significantly lagged behind its A-share listed peers since July, primarily due to investor expectations regarding its lower sensitivity to profit from rising average express delivery prices [1] - Management remains optimistic about the continued price increases in the express delivery sector, believing that the industry's prices can gradually recover following the government's anti-involution policies [1] - In response to the slight negative impact of rising express delivery prices on package volume, the company has revised its full-year package volume growth forecast from a range of 20% to 24% down to a range of 14% to 18% [1] Group 2 - Consequently, the forecast for ZTO's earnings per share for 2025 to 2026 has been adjusted downward by 0.4% to 10% to reflect the anticipated decrease in package volume [1] - The report suggests that improvements in industry pricing trends could drive a revaluation of the company, with the rating upgraded from "outperform" to "buy" and the target price increased from 155 HKD to 180 HKD [1]
大行评级｜大和：上调中通快递目标价至180港元 评级升至“买入”