通胀发酵，美联储上演“宫斗”！特朗普送上“黑色幽默”

Group 1: Tariff Impact on Oil and Trade - The shipment of Urals crude oil to India dropped to an average of 400,000 barrels per day in August, down nearly two-thirds from the previous average of 1.18 million barrels per day, indicating the effectiveness of U.S. pressure on India regarding Russian oil purchases [2] - The U.S. has accepted Brazil's request to negotiate over the imposition of a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, suggesting potential flexibility in tariff enforcement [2] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Concerns - Analysts express concerns that the full implementation of tariffs could have profound effects on inflation and global supply chains, with the Federal Reserve indicating that inflation risks may outweigh employment risks [3] - Citigroup estimates that U.S. companies are currently absorbing 60%-70% of tariff costs, but this may not be sustainable as companies are expected to increasingly pass these costs onto consumers [3] - Goldman Sachs reports that as of June, U.S. consumers had already borne 22% of tariff costs, with this figure projected to rise to 67% by October as more companies transfer costs [3] Group 3: Federal Budget and Debt Projections - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has revised its projections, indicating that the U.S. federal budget deficit will be nearly $1 trillion higher over the next decade due to tax and tariff policies [4] - The CRFB warns that the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio could rise from 118% to 120% in a baseline scenario and to 134% in a more adverse scenario by 2035 [4]