Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-21 06:15Core Viewpoint - The air conditioning market in July showed double-digit growth in domestic sales, while exports remained weak, aligning with market expectations. The domestic sales volume for the 2025 cooling year is projected to increase by 11% year-on-year to 110 million units, marking a historical high [1]. Group 1: Domestic Sales Performance - In July, the production of household air conditioners was 16.12 million units, a slight decrease of 0.01% year-on-year, while sales reached 16.44 million units, an increase of 1.58% year-on-year. Domestic sales accounted for 10.58 million units, up 14.34% year-on-year [1]. - The retail sector showed strong performance, with online and offline retail volumes increasing by 32% and 37% year-on-year, respectively. This indicates that retail growth is outpacing shipment growth [2]. - The air conditioning market's performance from March to July has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4% compared to the same period in 2019, indicating a stable trend [2]. Group 2: Export Sales and Challenges - Export sales of air conditioners in July decreased by 15% year-on-year, with ongoing impacts from tariffs. The announcement of a 90-day suspension of the 24% tariff by the US and China on August 12 is a key development to monitor [4]. - Major brands like Midea and Gree experienced export declines of 22% and 15% respectively, while Haier and Hisense saw declines of 30% and 12% [4]. Group 3: Company Performance Insights - In July, Midea, Gree, and Haier reported year-on-year domestic sales growth of 2%, flat, and 58% respectively, with Hisense and Changhong showing growth of 63% and a decline of 2% [3]. - The overall performance of leading brands has been stable, with Haier and Hisense showing particularly strong results [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric Appliances, and Hisense Home Appliances as key players in the air conditioning market [5].