沪指再创10年新高，A股“系统性慢牛”来了？

Group 1 - The recent performance of A-shares has been a major focus, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10-year high and the STAR Market Index rising over 3%, marking a near two-and-a-half-year high [1] - Global favorable factors have contributed to the bullish trend in A-shares, including a decrease in policy uncertainty due to agreements reached by the US with multiple countries, which has improved market sentiment [1] - A significant shift in US fiscal policy expectations has occurred, with a projected $4 trillion tax cut over the next decade, leading to a direct shift towards expansionary fiscal policy, supporting the rise of US and global risk assets [1] Group 2 - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has led to a nearly 20 basis point decline in US Treasury yields, benefiting the valuation recovery of growth stocks [2] - Central banks in many countries have lowered interest rates earlier than the Federal Reserve, increasing global money supply and driving capital towards non-US markets [2] Group 3 - The resilience of A-shares is crucial, with China's GDP growing by 5.3% in the first half of the year, outperforming other major economies [3] - The appreciation expectation of the RMB has enhanced the attractiveness of A-share assets, while government policies aimed at reducing systemic risks have provided a solid foundation for a long-term market reversal [3] - There has been a significant inflow of funds into popular sectors such as pharmaceuticals and electronics, with margin financing increasing and foreign hedge funds rapidly buying Chinese stocks [3] Group 4 - The sustainability of the current bullish trend in A-shares will depend on external factors, particularly any changes in US policy or a strengthening of the dollar, which could tighten global liquidity and impact A-share performance [3] - The domestic environment remains relatively stable and supportive, providing a good foundation for financing and active thematic trading, as long as there are no major fluctuations in macroeconomic conditions [3]