唐晓甫：重塑中国资产价格预期，是本轮股市上涨的底层逻辑

Core Insights - The A-share market has experienced a significant increase in trading volume, with a total turnover of 2.45 trillion yuan on August 20, 2025, marking the sixth consecutive trading day above 2 trillion yuan, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1] - Despite the overall market rally, many retail investors have not seen proportional gains, suggesting a disparity between index performance and individual stock returns [1] - The rise in asset prices and investor confidence is attributed to a shift in expectations regarding China's technological development, particularly in sectors like new energy, semiconductors, and AI [1][3] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.04% to 3766 points, reaching a 10-year high, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.89%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.23% [1] - The market saw over 3600 stocks increase in value, indicating broad-based participation in the rally [1] Sector Analysis - The military industry has been a key driver of the market's rise, with significant interest in high-tech assets amid the ongoing US-China trade tensions [3] - The stock of Cambricon Technologies (寒武纪-U) surged, reaching a price of 1013 yuan, with an increase of 42.78% in August, despite the company having a history of losses [3][4] - The company is expected to be included in the SSE 50 Index, which will require funds to allocate resources towards it, enhancing its market presence [3] Investment Trends - The current market dynamics suggest a transition from speculative trading to long-term investment strategies, potentially leading to a "slow bull" market [9] - The decrease in volatility of the CSI 300 index indicates that the current rally is supported by long-term capital rather than short-term speculation [9][10] Financial Data - Recent financial data shows a significant increase in deposits, with 18.44 trillion yuan added in the first seven months of 2025, indicating a potential influx of capital into the stock market [12] - The ratio of household deposits to total stock market value remains high, suggesting that there is still considerable room for capital to flow into equities [12][13] Valuation Insights - China's stock market capitalization relative to GDP is among the lowest compared to major economies, indicating potential undervaluation [14] - The current market capitalization to GDP ratio is 62.51%, suggesting that if investor sentiment shifts, there could be significant upside potential for Chinese equities [14][15]