经济学家：日本央行将在第四季度再次加息，可能是十月

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise interest rates in the fourth quarter of this year, indicating a clearer path towards monetary policy normalization [1][2] - Among economists surveyed, nearly two-thirds predict the Bank of Japan will increase the benchmark rate from the current 0.50% by at least 25 basis points, with October being the most likely month for this action [1][2] - Despite recent weak employment data in the U.S. raising bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut, 70% of analysts believe this will not delay the Bank of Japan's tightening of monetary policy [1] Group 2 - October is emerging as a prime window for a rate hike, with 38% of economists favoring it, followed by January (30%) and December (18%) [2] - T&D Asset Management's chief strategist suggests that by October, the Bank of Japan will be able to respond to clearer U.S. monetary policy and domestic political dynamics [2] - A significant majority (92%) of economists expect the Bank of Japan to maintain current rates in the upcoming mid-September policy meeting [2] Group 3 - Persistent inflation is the core driver pushing the Bank of Japan towards a rate hike, with consumer inflation exceeding the 2% target for over three years [3] - There are concerns regarding fiscal policy, with over two-thirds of respondents worried about the pressure for increased fiscal spending [3] - Some economists warn of the risk of short-sighted policy choices due to recent political developments, while others believe extreme fiscal expansion is unlikely due to the ruling party's cautious stance on increasing the deficit amid rising interest rates [3]