美联储降息将近？债市发出复杂信号：既期待又害怕！

Group 1 - Investors are eagerly anticipating the Federal Reserve to end its wait-and-see approach and initiate interest rate cuts, with a focus on the bond market's movements [1] - The yield curve of the $28 trillion U.S. Treasury market is steepening, reflecting increasing confidence in the resumption of the rate-cutting cycle [1] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield has significantly dropped from approximately 4.4% to 3.8% since the last rate cut in December, indicating market optimism [1] Group 2 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains relatively unchanged at around 4.3%, compared to 3.8% a year ago, despite the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in four years [1][3] - Concerns about inflation are rising, with investors expecting a 3.3% inflation rate a year from now, well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [2] - The U.S. government's annual debt repayment cost has reached $1 trillion, contributing to upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields [3] Group 3 - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasuries is currently 57 basis points, higher than the 25 basis points observed during the last rate cut in 2024 [6] - The increase in the term premium for long-term Treasuries is attributed to larger Treasury auctions and growing fiscal concerns [3][6] - The potential impact of tariffs and trade policies on global trade may also contribute to the risk premium included in bonds [6]