Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-21 08:33Core Viewpoint - Viking Therapeutics' oral drug VK2735 has shown positive results in its Phase II VENTURE trial for obesity treatment, achieving its primary endpoint, which may impact Eli Lilly's (LLY.US) market position [1][3]. Group 1: Viking Therapeutics (VKTX.US) - The VENTURE trial reported weight loss ranging from 2.3% (adjusted for placebo) to 12.2% (adjusted for placebo) across different dosage groups of VK2735 [1]. - The trial indicated a higher discontinuation rate due to adverse effects in VK2735 patients (approximately 20%) compared to the placebo group (13%), with gastrointestinal issues being the most common reason for discontinuation [1]. - An exploratory dosing regimen showed that patients who started with a 90mg dose for 6 weeks and then reduced to 30mg for 7 weeks achieved a weight loss of 6.7% at week 6 and 7.9% at week 13, supporting the potential of VK2735 for weight maintenance [1][3]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The faster titration schedule in VK2735's Phase II trial may have contributed to its competitive weight loss results, but it also led to a higher rate of adverse reactions compared to oral semaglutide and orforglipron [2]. - The discontinuation rate for VK2735 at week 13 is estimated to be 10%-20% in the high-dose group, which is still higher than the 5%-8% seen in orforglipron's Phase III trial [2]. - The market is reassessing the competitive landscape for oral weight loss drugs, as evidenced by a 19% increase in Viking Therapeutics' stock and a 12% rise in Novo Nordisk (NVO.US) following the release of relevant trial data [3][4]. Group 3: Implications for Eli Lilly (LLY.US) - Eli Lilly's orforglipron is perceived to have better tolerability, and its ongoing ATTAIN-MAINTAIN trial aims to explore maintenance treatment effects, which may differ significantly from VK2735's positioning [3][4]. - The results from VK2735's trial suggest that patients may have a broader capability to maintain weight loss with low-dose medications, a potential that could also apply to orforglipron [4]. - The market reaction to Eli Lilly's stock following the ATTAIN-1 trial data release indicates a rebound of approximately 14%, suggesting that previous market responses may have been exaggerated [4].