北新建材(000786)：石膏板有承压 两翼表现突出

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 13.56 billion yuan for H1 2025, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.93 billion yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.31 billion yuan, a decline of 4.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.09 billion yuan, down 21.9% year-on-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - Product-wise revenue: Gypsum board (6.68 billion yuan, -8.6%), keel (1.14 billion yuan, -10.7%), waterproof membrane (1.72 billion yuan, +0.63%), and coatings (2.51 billion yuan, +40.8%) [1] - Regional revenue: Northern region (4.20 billion yuan, +1.5%), Southern region (6.69 billion yuan, -1.0%), Western region (2.35 billion yuan, -3.0%), and overseas (320 million yuan, +68.8%) [1] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 30.4%, with specific margins for gypsum board (38.7%, -0.9 points), keel (21.7%, +0.4 points), waterproof membrane (17.0%, -2.3 points), and coatings (31.8%, +0.5 points) [2] - Sales expense ratio increased by 0.7 percentage points to 5.2%, while management expense ratio rose by 0.2 percentage points to 4.2% [2] - The company recorded an increase in bad debt provisions by 70 million yuan, leading to a decline in net profit margin by 2.0 percentage points to 14.6% [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is pursuing a "one body, two wings, global layout" strategy, focusing on product diversification and market expansion [3] - New product categories are being developed, including "gypsum board+" and regional cultural products, alongside the cultivation of gypsum fiberboard as a second growth curve [3] - The company is enhancing its global presence, particularly in Southeast Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, with significant overseas project advancements [3] Financial Forecast - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.37 yuan, 2.90 yuan, and 3.34 yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11x, 9x, and 8x [3] - The company maintains a strong competitive position and is expected to show performance resilience, with a "buy" rating suggested [3]