3年前投中Claude的人，今年又赚了7亿美金

Core Insights - Leopold Aschenbrenner predicts that AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) will reach a critical point around 2027, followed by the rise of superintelligence shortly thereafter [2][8] - Aschenbrenner's hedge fund, Situational Awareness LP (SALP), has achieved a net return of 47% in just six months, showcasing a sharp investment strategy amidst skepticism in the capital markets [4][51] - The technological explosion in AI is characterized as an exponential leap rather than a linear progression, with trillions of dollars expected to flow into industries such as GPU, data centers, and energy infrastructure [3][16] Investment Strategy - SALP's initial capital reached $1.5 billion, reflecting significant confidence from prominent Silicon Valley figures [42] - The fund focuses on the AGI supply chain rather than consumer-level AI, with major holdings in companies like Broadcom, Intel, and energy suppliers [44][46] - SALP's performance has been bolstered by strategic options trading, particularly benefiting from Intel's stock surge due to acquisition rumors [45][51] Industry Dynamics - The demand for energy and infrastructure to support AGI is immense, with a single training cluster consuming as much electricity as a medium-sized city [11][12] - Major investments in AI infrastructure are projected to exceed $1.5 trillion by 2027, surpassing investments in 5G and renewable energy [16] - The emergence of AGI is framed as a national industrial deployment issue rather than merely a scientific breakthrough [17] Regulatory and Ethical Considerations - Aschenbrenner emphasizes the urgency of AGI regulation, particularly in light of lessons learned from the FTX collapse and the need for transparent governance in capital markets [30][34] - His experiences have led to a more cautious investment approach, integrating a delta-neutral strategy to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [30][52] Future Outlook - Aschenbrenner's transition from an AGI whistleblower to a capital market operator reflects a shift in focus towards practical investment strategies while maintaining engagement with ethical discussions in the EA community [65][67] - The ongoing developments in AGI and its implications for energy and technology distribution suggest that SALP may represent a significant and thoughtful investment in the future of AI [69][70]