百利好晚盘分析：联邦赤字扩大 债务问题重现

Gold - The overnight gold trend has changed, breaking through key resistance levels, indicating potential for further increases, although it remains in a non-trending state on a larger time frame [1] - The U.S. cumulative deficit is projected to reach $22.7 trillion from FY 2026 to FY 2035, an increase from the previous estimate of $21.8 trillion, primarily due to tax cuts and tariffs [1] - The estimated U.S. deficit is expected to rise steadily over the next decade, reaching $2.6 trillion by 2035, accounting for 5.9% of GDP [1] - Technically, gold has closed with a small bullish candle on the daily chart, indicating a potential upward trend with support around $3333 [1] Oil - Oil prices experienced a slight rebound, but the overall outlook remains pessimistic due to rising production and export levels [2] - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a decline of 1.41%, which is the largest drop since June [2] - U.S. domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 1.3382 million barrels per day, while exports rose by 79,500 barrels to 437.2 thousand barrels per day [2] - Technically, oil has closed with a small bullish candle but shows signs of being oversold, with a potential for a mid-term rebound [2] U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. dollar index has shown weakness, lacking sufficient momentum for both upward and downward movements [3] - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate a high probability of a rate cut in September, which may further drive the dollar down [3] - The minutes revealed that nearly all participants at the July meeting agreed on maintaining the benchmark interest rate in the 4.25% to 4.50% range, with inflation pressures remaining a concern [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has formed a bearish candlestick pattern, indicating the start of a medium-term adjustment [5] - The hourly chart shows lower highs and a horizontal low, suggesting a potential continuation of the downtrend [5] Copper - Copper has shown a series of small bearish candles, indicating a possible adjustment to previous declines, with a significant chance of forming a downward ABC pattern [6] - The hourly chart indicates resistance at key pressure levels, with a high likelihood of new lows [6] Market Overview - U.S. EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 6.014 million barrels for the week ending August 15, marking the largest decline since June 13 [7] - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes were slightly hawkish, but some officials expressed openness to a rate cut in September [8] - Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.5, surpassing expectations and previous values, indicating a return above the growth threshold [8]