日本央行加息预期走强：10月或是最佳时机！

Group 1 - A significant majority of economists, nearly two-thirds, believe that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points later this year, an increase from just over half in the previous month [1] - Despite recent weak employment data in the U.S. reviving bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut, 70% of analysts indicate that this will not delay the Bank of Japan's tightening of monetary policy [1] - Following over three years of consumer inflation exceeding the 2% target, the Bank of Japan faces pressure to raise rates, although it remains cautious due to concerns about U.S. tariffs impacting economic growth [1] Group 2 - In a survey conducted from August 12 to 19, 67 out of 73 economists (92%) predict that the Bank of Japan will not adjust interest rates in the upcoming policy meeting in mid-September [1] - Among 71 economists, 63% expect the Bank of Japan to raise the benchmark lending rate from 0.50% to at least 0.75% in the next quarter, an increase from 54% in the previous survey [1] - The preferred timing for the next rate hike among 40 economists is October (38%), followed by January next year (30%) and December this year (18%) [1] Group 3 - The financial markets still anticipate that the Bank of Japan will raise rates by 25 basis points before the end of the year [3] - Over three-quarters of economists support or somewhat support the Japan-U.S. trade agreement [3] - Concerns are raised regarding potential fiscal expansion pressures following the opposition party's calls to lower the consumption tax and their recent progress in the Senate elections [3] Group 4 - There is an increasing risk that considerations for fiscal sustainability may fall below acceptable levels [4] - Extreme fiscal expansion is deemed unlikely, as the ruling party remains cautious about increasing the primary deficit in the context of rising interest rates [4] - There is no clear consensus among respondents regarding which potential successor to the Prime Minister would implement economic policies most likely to stimulate medium to long-term growth [5]