ZFX山海证券：鲍威尔或留任理事，特朗普布局受阻

Fundamental Analysis - The request from the U.S. President for Fed Governor Cook to resign temporarily weakened the dollar [1] - Meeting minutes revealed that officials supporting interest rate cuts in July did not receive majority support, indicating a cautious stance from the Fed [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased significantly more than the Consumer Price Index (CPI), suggesting tariff pressures have not fully transmitted to consumer prices, which may lead the Fed to maintain its current position [1] - Powell's potential continued role as a governor after his term ends could hinder Trump's plans to reshape the dovish management team, further increasing market volatility [1] Technical Analysis - Gold's one-hour chart shows a breakdown followed by a quick recovery, but it has not yet regained key resistance levels, indicating an unclear short-term trend [2] - The GBP/USD one-hour chart indicates a downward breakout after a period of volatility, suggesting increased selling pressure; if subsequent rebounds fail to surpass previous resistance, the trend may continue downward, recommending short positions [3] - The EUR/USD one-hour chart also shows a downward breakout after fluctuations, indicating heightened selling pressure; similar to GBP/USD, if rebounds do not break previous resistance, short positions are advised [4]