布米普特拉北京投资基金管理有限公司：美联储七月会议纪要公布，降息路径分歧加！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July monetary policy meeting minutes reveal deepening internal divisions regarding the interest rate path, with a surprising two members supporting a rate cut, introducing new uncertainty into recent monetary policy discussions [1][5]. Economic Perspectives - Officials exhibit significant disagreement on key economic issues, particularly inflation, with some advocating for more time to observe trade policy impacts, while others argue that waiting for clear signals is neither feasible nor appropriate [3][5]. - There are varying opinions on the impact of tariffs on inflation, with some believing the transmission may be slower than expected, while others warn of rising pressures in service prices [3]. - The assessment of the U.S. labor market shows diverse viewpoints; despite a historically low unemployment rate, some officials note signs of slowing wage growth and a decrease in new job creation, indicating potential cooling in labor demand [3][5]. Economic Growth Outlook - Several participants expect the U.S. economic growth to remain sluggish in the second half of the year, with slowing real income growth potentially suppressing household consumption [3][5]. Employment Data Impact - The discussions occurred prior to the release of the July employment report, which significantly revised down the previous two months' employment data, potentially heightening concerns among decision-makers about economic slowdown [5]. - Analysts suggest that the meeting minutes, while not revealing much new information, reinforce key signals: the July meeting's tone was more cautious than market expectations, and future decisions will increasingly rely on economic data performance [5]. Policy Flexibility - Decision-makers emphasize the importance of maintaining policy flexibility, agreeing that adjustments should be made based on changes in economic data [7]. - The ongoing global economic uncertainty will continue to draw market attention to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, with the divisions among decision-makers reflecting the complexity of the current U.S. economic environment [7].